Global Warming…. Now no warming, but now signs of cooling instead!

Professor Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, says the question now is not whether global warming has paused, but whether global cooling has started:

Attention in the public debate seems to be moving away from the 15-17 yr ‘pause’ to the cooling since 2002 (note: I am receiving inquiries about this from journalists).  This period since 2002 is scientifically interesting, since it coincides with the ‘climate shift’ circa 2001/2002 posited by Tsonis and others.  This shift and the subsequent slight cooling trend provides a rationale for inferring a slight cooling trend over the next decade or so, rather than a flat trend from the 15 yr ‘pause’.

To those warmists shouting “I accept the science” we can only respond: “I wish you would.”

Christopher Monckton declares the climate models of warmists are now conclusively broken:


Superimposing the temperature curve and its least-squares linear-regression trend on the statistical insignificance region bounded by the means of the trends on these published uncertainties since January 1996 demonstrates that there has been no statistically-significant warming in 17 years 4 months

image

Monckton, too, sees a cooling trend – albeit over a period too short to mean much at all: 


It is better to focus on the ever-widening discrepancy between predicted and observed warming rates. The IPCC’s forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report backcasts the interval of 34 models’ global warming projections to 2005, since when the world should have been warming at a rate equivalent to 2.33 Cº/century. Instead, it has been cooling at a rate equivalent to a statistically-insignificant 0.87 Cº/century:

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